‘Consumers will continue to be cautious, looking for the best value for their money’, warn market analysts on Christmas 2023

The Christmas season will get off to a solid start this year, with October sales coming in 5.5 per cent ahead of a year ago, before cooling off “considerably”. This is according to new analysis by commerce protection provider, Signifyd.

It predicts that sales in the EMEA region will remain flat (+0.5 per cent) in November and rebound in December, up 4.6 per cent year-over-year. The company also projects that online sales will finish up three per cent over the season in 2022, with a two per cent increase in sales during what’s known as the ‘Cyber Five’ – the shopping festival centred on Black Friday and anchored by Cyber Monday.

The growth predictions for EMEA, based on transaction intelligence from Signifyd’s Commerce Network of thousands of merchants, fall below the current inflation rate.

“While inflation is slowing across Europe, the deceleration in price hikes won’t be dramatic enough to turn merchants’ fortunes around,” said Signifyd Chief Customer Officer, J. Bennett.

“We’re going to see very similar trends to everywhere else in Western economies. Winter is coming; people are saving up for that. Consumers will continue to be cautious spenders throughout the holiday season, looking for the right promotions and the best value for their money.”

Signifyd will provide live data updates on sales throughout the upcoming ‘golden quarter’ – including overall sales, sales by device, fraud trends and revised season sales projections – on its Holiday Season Pulse tracker.

Discussing Signifyd’s predictions, Data Analyst, Phelim Killough, said the figures should be viewed in a bigger context.

“They’re perhaps underwhelming from a year-on-year perspective when compared to the double-digit, year-on-year growth from seasons past, but we’re building off a higher foundation. We haven’t seen a decline in year-on-year sales since the onset of COVID. We’ve simply seen a slowing in growth.”

Signifyd’s projections are based on recent transaction and growth trends and seasonality factors. Its pulse data is derived from transactions on its Commerce Network of thousands of brands and merchants.